Michael Kaestner (2006)
Anomalous Price Behavior following Earnings Announcements - does Representativeness cause Overreaction ?
Revue Finance, Vol 27(2).
Behavioral Finance aims to explain
empirical anomalies by introducing investor psychology as a determinant
of asset pricing. Two kinds of anomalies, namely underreaction and
overreaction, have been established by an impressive record of
empirical work. While underreaction defines a slow adjustment of prices
to corporate events or announcements, overreaction deals with extreme
stock price reactions to previous information or past performance.
This
study investigates current and past earnings surprises for listed US
companies over the period 1983-1999. It provides evidence that
investors exhibit long-term overreaction to past, highly unexpected,
earnings surprises. Investors tend to overestimate (underestimate)
future earnings after extreme positive (negative) earnings surprises.
As, on average, these extreme past surprises are not confirmed by
subsequent earnings figures, they are followed by a correction of the
initial overreaction at the date of the subsequent earnings
announcement. Moreover, the longer the similar earnings surprise
series, the higher the subsequent correction, suggesting that
representativeness may cause this overreaction phenomenon